The expert dilemma: who should you trust?

Newspaper and Tea
Photo by by Matt Callow on Flickr

The Journal of Risk Research has published study results asserting a strong correlation between whom people accept as experts and whether or not the expert espouses a position the person agrees with.  In other words, people tend to listen to experts who tell them what they want to hear.

On the surface, this isn’t too surprising, and it would be easy to dismiss this as a natural tendency for people to be intellectually lazy.  After all, it requires a lot of brain power to analyze and refute contrary arguments (or a lot of emotional strain to keep from wrapping your fingers around the other person’s neck).

Yet there is a more complex issue underlying this phenomenon, and significant stakes to it in the political arena.  Many of the intractable issues facing us today have competing sets of experts advising two polar opposite strategies.  From economics to global warming, we are besieged with diametrically different expert opinions.  How are we supposed to decide who to trust?

The vast majority of us lack the domain expertise as well as the time to vet expert sources of information.  Is this scientist or this economist telling the truth or at least being honest about what is known versus what is speculation or prediction on his part?  We likely can’t tell from listening to the expert.

A secondary strategy used is to weigh the volume of experts.  If you have 20 people telling you one thing and 2 people telling you another, the best bet is to side with the majority.  But in a sea of 24 hour news, political action committees, and the Internet, it has become impossible to even gauge the volume.  There might be 10, 256 on one side and 6,857 on the other, but no one is going to bother to count.

So we’re left with trusting the source of the expert.  We are left having to trust that CNN or the NY Times has done their homework and is being honest.  But given that we all have particular trusted sources for news and information we go to time and again, this places an enormous amount of power in the hands of the information brokers and distributors.  Power that some are clearly abusing.

It may not be feasible to verify each expert’s credentials, nor even practical to count the experts on each side of an issue.  But it is reasonable to do your homework on your frequent sources of news.  Remember, caveat emptor is is still sound advice, even if all you’re buying is someone’s credibility.


GOP needs to watch more sci-fi

FrankenSarah
created by Tim Nichols

The Republicans brought their monster to life, and now it’s rampaging through the village as they watch helplessly.  Bringing the religious right into their tent seemed like a good idea at the time.  But outside forces morphed that animal into the Tea Party, and the GOP is now suffering the reality that it is they who are at the mercy of their creation.

Ronald Reagan aligned his party with the Moral Majority to bolster the GOP voting base.  It was a brilliant political plan that resulted in millions of southern Democrats and born-again Christians siding on the political right.  Republicans didn’t have a lot of passion around issues like Creationism, abortion, birth control, or sex education.  However, by adopting them as part of their platform, they brought in support from a large and passionate group of voters who really didn’t care much about the Republican pro-business agenda.  It was a win-win, and it redefined the party.  The new Republican fan base was a passionate and morally righteous group.  They had fire in their belly, but only for a fairly limited set of issues.

9/11 changed everything.  The attack brought an uprising of patriotic fervor that was stoked by the GOP into a national frenzy of desire for vengeance and justice as we marched into war.  Terrorism was positioned as a threat to all things American.  But that frenzy was not contained to the Republican core.  It spread widely and was fueled with abandon during the 2008 election season where fear, whispers of conspiracy, and racism flourished.  What started as primarily a religious movement had grown into a working class grassroots organization.  Yet it retained that passionate ideological fire and a renewed fear that the American way of life was at stake.

The Tea Party was born.  At first it was seen by the Republicans as an army they could use to rail against the evils of liberalism.  But as is so often the case, the slaves turned on their master.  After all, once all the soldiers start thinking everybody is out to get them, there’s little reason for them to worry about the guys across the battlefield until they’ve taken control of their own army.

Welcome to 2010, where the Republican officers are desperately trying to prove their allegiance to the Tea Party for fear of being fragged.  From Frankenstein to Battlestar Gallactica, any sci-fi fan worth their salt would have seen this coming from a parsec away.


Insurance company thinks you’re bad at math

Are you pessimistic, paranoid, and unable to perform a basic compound interest calculation?  Then maybe divorce insurance is for you.  After all, the future is uncertain, and nothing says, “I’ll love you forever,” like cutting that monthly premium check.

A company called WedLock is now offering a cash payout should the day ever come that you can’t stomach living happily ever after anymore.  It’s a little something to soften the blow, or so it seems.  Prices are just $16/month per $1250 unit.  That is, $160/month will net you $12,500 upon your decree.  But don’t order yet.  There’s also a $250/unit bonus for every year you manage to stay hitched after the 4-year mandatory waiting period for the policy to go into force.

Time magazine thoughtfully did some of the math for us using this hypothetical 10 unit purchase and assuming the marriage lasts 10 years.  The $19,188 you paid in premiums will get you $27,500 in divorce-dollars.  Should you manage to stay together for 20 years, your $38,400 investment will get you a cool $78,400.  Of course, should you screw up and pull off the whole “til death do us part” thing, you get nothing.

While it may seem like you are getting decent return on your investment, consider that over 10 years the policy is only yielding 6.8% APR.  Granted, in the current economy that looks like a good return, but historically it’s a pretty conservative investment return. The stock market has consistently returned an average of over 10% APR for the last century.  Over 20 years, the return drops to 6.45%.  So the longer you stay married, the more money the insurance company makes.  It should be comforting to know that at least someone has the incentive for you to stay with your spouse.

Entrepreneur John Logan is responsible for this new financial product and says even he is surprised how much  insurance his customers are buying.  He says some are spending more than $1000/month in premiums.  This certainly causes you wonder how someone comes by $1000/month in disposable income while being so profoundly bad with money.

The bottom line is that you are much better off to simply invest the monthly premium yourself.  Not only is your return likely to be better, but should you celebrate your 20th anniversary together, you can use the nest egg to take the whole family on a great vacation rather than lamenting all the cash you’ve tossed down the drain to preserve your happiness.

The mere existence of insurance like this is validation for the USA being ranked 24/30 countries in math ability.  While the sale of this product is not criminal, the fact that’s it’s selling is certainly a crime.


The perils of popularity

Sick BoyIn our ongoing series of scientific studies proving the obvious, comes news that popular people get sick first.  Duh.

What may be slightly less obvious is that health agencies might benefit from identifying and monitoring these social butterflies.  After all, they are like the proverbial canaries in the coal mine.  If some epidemic is going to run through a community, these soldiers can be expected to step up and take one for the team.

Those of us more socially challenged individuals may also take solace in our relative good health.  Sure, we may not get invited to any of the cool parties or get mobbed with hugs when we walk into a room.  But when all you Paris Hilton wanna-bees are on your deathbed, we’ll be hale as a horse, ensconced in our geeky dens full of Fritos and flat screens.

Remember: there’s an upside to everything if you squint hard enough and tilt your head just right.