If Republicans sweep control of both houses of Congress it might actually be a worst case scenario for them. After all, the real prize the GOP has its sites on is the White House in 2012.

The question in the coming elections is not whether the Democrats will lose seats in Congress, but how many they’ll lose.  In part this is typical for a mid-term election where one party has a current majority in both houses and the Presidency.  But the larger issue looming over Democrats is the stalled economy.  It’s clear that if the economy had done a significant recovery since 2008, the Democrats would not be so easily cast as political villains.  But the recovery hasn’t happened yet, and the GOP has a reasonable chance of regaining the House, and even a long shot at the Senate.

Assuming Republicans do win a majority in both houses, they will still lack a veto-proof majority.  They will also lack a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.  This will limit their ability to act on their agenda.  After all, they have severely limited the Democrats ability to act over the last two years with the filibuster alone.  But as the majority, they will then be subject in 2012 to the same accusations they are leveling against Democrats now.  Congress will still be seen as an impediment to government by the people rather than as a vehicle for progress.  The cruel reality of the current system is that the minority party has the ability to prevent progress while the majority party takes the blame.  And there’s every reason to believe that ongoing frustration by voters would manifest in yet another anti-incumbent mood at the ballot box in 2012.

The last thing Republicans need going into a Presidential election is a prevailing wind of “toss out the GOP”.  They may already be at a disadvantage given that the economy is likely to make positive strides on its own by then, and like it or not, the President always gets credit and blame for that.  The 2012 White House chances for the GOP may rest heavily on how far along the economy has come.  If the recovery is significant, history alone would suggest the incumbent President will fare well.  But if the recovery is limited, the GOP has a chance to turn that into a liability.

Republican’s best chance for casting a tepid recovery in 2012 as a condemnation of Obama will be if they can claim his party also controlled Congress and therefore he had every opportunity to make a difference and failed.  Granted, as the minority in Congress they still will be a major impediment to Democrats being able to impact the economy, but as the minority they can blame the Democrats.  If they are in the majority, then Obama has more of an opportunity to cast Republicans as the problem.

All in all, the GOP’s best strategy for 2010 would be to come just shy of taking the Senate.  This allows them to keep the Democrats on the hook, and yet prevent any unfavorable legislation from passing Congress.  Meanwhile, a slight majority in the House would give them the opportunity to start copious investigations of the Obama administration, similar to what they did with Clinton, in hopes of casting the Democratic White House as corrupt.  If they get lucky and the economy really is in a prolonged stagnation, they will then be positioned to sweep Congress and the Presidency in 2012.