Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

The headline touts that half of all Americans have switched religions. The article quotes John Green, a Pew senior fellow as saying, Americans switch religions “often, early and for many different reasons.” The horror.

But if you look at the actual data, it hardly says that at all. Less than half switch religions, and the majority only do it once, sometime between childhood and age 36. Those changing multiple times are often those who leave their childhood religions and go back. Further, the vast vast majority of “changes” are between flavors of Christianity. Now maybe moving from Catholic to Protestant might be considered significant, although an Episcopal church is a pretty familiar venue to any Catholic. But a big chunk of the flips were between Protestant denominations. Does moving from Methodist to Presbyterian really count as switching religions? I would bet that among most of the mainstream Protestant denominations there is as much variability between churches of the same sect as there is between churches of different sects.

Now if half of all Americans were changing into or away from Hinduism, Islam, Shintoism, or Wiccan, then you’d have a story worthy of a sensationalistic headline. But reporting that half of all Americans switch between Hellman’s and Miracle Whip? Not so much.

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