{"id":4061,"date":"2012-01-15T13:49:46","date_gmt":"2012-01-15T18:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/?p=4061"},"modified":"2012-01-15T13:49:47","modified_gmt":"2012-01-15T18:49:47","slug":"fracking-might-frack-us-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/2012\/01\/fracking-might-frack-us-all.html","title":{"rendered":"Fracking might frack us all"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Scientist\"<\/a>It seems increasingly likely that some amount of hydraulic fracturing to liberate shale-bound natural gas reserves will be approved in New York state.\u00a0 The specific rules around that, and in what areas it will be approved, are still being determined.\u00a0 The EPA, who faces the reality that fracking is an issue in many states and that the environmental imacts of the technique are not necessarily bound by state lines, is increasingly looking to New York<\/a> as a model for if and how fracking should be allowed.<\/p>\n

There seems little doubt that the energy resources recovered through fracking would go a long way toward solving our short term energy problems<\/a>.\u00a0 Economically, it makes good sense.\u00a0 Companies believe they can make money doing it, and the country can use the energy.\u00a0 If it were as simple as all that, no one would really be against it.<\/p>\n

Yet there is a niggling little concern<\/a> that fracking compromises underground aquifers, causes earthquakes, and generates copious amounts of polluted wastewater that will be released into the environment.\u00a0 And therein lies the rub.<\/p>\n

The trick here is that the science is not remotely settled.\u00a0 This has not stopped groups assuring us that it is 100% safe and they would gladly have their children frolic in fracking wastewater retention ponds, as well as their counterparts assuring us that permitting any fracking would result in having hot and cold running fire taps in every kitchen.<\/p>\n

The trouble is, it’s complicated.\u00a0 There are no generalized models for how fracking fluids or methane will migrate through the Earth’s crust when things are disturbed thousands of feet below ground.\u00a0 Scientists are just beginning to study this, and the answers won’t be known for some time.<\/p>\n

Even when and if the science community reaches consensus on an answer, it’s likely to be disputed by whichever group is proved wrong.\u00a0 The global warming debate has taught us that the political and popular perception is that ultimately scientific conclusions are something that can be voted on<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The only sane way to proceed is an evaluation of the risks on each side.\u00a0 If we don’t frack, we may face shortages of natural gas.\u00a0 This might drive up energy prices, push for investment in alternative energy sources, increase global competition and tension over foreign oil supplies, or drive us to increasingly rely on dirty domestic coal for power.<\/p>\n

If we do frack, we may face permanent pollution of potable water supplies.\u00a0 Fresh water shortages are already predicted<\/a> to be the next major natural resource crisis.\u00a0 There may also be unpredictable damage to wildlife ecosystems that could ultimately threaten food supplies and human health as well.<\/p>\n

In comparing these two risks, it seems clear that not fracking exacerbates risks we are already dealing with.\u00a0 Meanwhile, fracking introduces lots of unknown risks\u2014unknown risks with long term, widespread, dire, and potentially irrecoverable consequences.\u00a0 In essence, we are choosing between the known and the unknown.<\/p>\n

The conservative position here is clearly to favor known risks.<\/p>\n

Besides, we’ve seen this play out too many times before.\u00a0 We were assured the risks of industrial pollution were localized and minimal.\u00a0 Then the Cuyahoga River caught fire, Los Angeles was lost in a haze of smog, and the northeast was drenched by acid rain.\u00a0 These were not minor inconveniences or local hazards.\u00a0 These were widespread ecological disasters with definitive and demonstrable negative effects on human health.\u00a0 And the economic costs to recover from them have been, and continue to be, enormous.<\/p>\n

Fracking may well be safe.\u00a0 I don’t know.\u00a0 You don’t know.\u00a0 The politicians and energy companies don’t know.\u00a0 And neither do the environmentalists or the EPA.\u00a0 The critical point being, are we willing to risk being wrong?\u00a0 Does it make sense that a society, currently with their hair on fire over the prospect of passing debt on to their grandchildren, is willing to casually risk passing land without potable water or farmable land on to those same kids… for the sake of lower heating bills?<\/p>\n

Frack with caution. Do it for the children.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Should a society currently afraid of passing debt to their grandchildren be willing to risk passing land without potable water to those same kids… for the sake of lower heating bills?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4061","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-madscience","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4061","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4061"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4061\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4076,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4061\/revisions\/4076"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4061"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4061"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4061"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}