{"id":2410,"date":"2010-09-07T10:02:54","date_gmt":"2010-09-07T14:02:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nicholsclan.com\/tinblog\/?p=2410"},"modified":"2010-11-24T09:45:42","modified_gmt":"2010-11-24T14:45:42","slug":"could-big-win-in-2010-be-bad-news-for-gop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timscogitorium.com\/tinblog\/2010\/09\/could-big-win-in-2010-be-bad-news-for-gop.html","title":{"rendered":"Could big win in 2010 be bad news for GOP ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"GOP<\/a>
Photo by LaMenta3 on Flickr<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

If Republicans sweep control of both houses of Congress it might actually be a worst case scenario for them. After all, the real prize the GOP has its sites on is the White House in 2012.<\/p>\n

The question in the coming elections is not whether the Democrats will lose seats in Congress, but how many they’ll lose.\u00a0 In part this is typical for a mid-term election where one party has a current majority in both houses and the Presidency.\u00a0 But the larger issue looming over Democrats is the stalled economy.\u00a0 It’s clear that if the economy had done a significant recovery since 2008, the Democrats would not be so easily cast as political villains.\u00a0 But the recovery hasn’t happened yet, and the GOP has a reasonable chance of regaining the House, and even a long shot at the Senate<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Assuming Republicans do win a majority in both houses, they will still lack a veto-proof majority.\u00a0 They will also lack a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.\u00a0 This will limit their ability to act on their agenda.\u00a0 After all, they have severely limited the Democrats ability to act over the last two years with the filibuster alone.\u00a0 But as the majority, they will then be subject in 2012 to the same accusations they are leveling against Democrats now.\u00a0 Congress will still be seen as an impediment to government by the people rather than as a vehicle for progress.\u00a0 The cruel reality of the current system is that the minority party has the ability to prevent progress while the majority party takes the blame.\u00a0 And there’s every reason to believe that ongoing frustration by voters would manifest in yet another anti-incumbent mood at the ballot box in 2012.<\/p>\n

The last thing Republicans need going into a Presidential election is a prevailing wind of “toss out the GOP”.\u00a0 They may already be at a disadvantage given that the economy is likely to make positive strides on its own by then, and like it or not, the President always gets credit and blame for that.\u00a0 The 2012 White House chances for the GOP may rest heavily on how far along the economy has come.\u00a0 If the recovery is significant, history alone would suggest the incumbent President will fare well.\u00a0 But if the recovery is limited, the GOP has a chance to turn that into a liability.<\/p>\n

Republican’s best chance for casting a tepid recovery in 2012 as a condemnation of Obama will be if they can claim his party also controlled Congress and therefore he had every opportunity to make a difference and failed.\u00a0 Granted, as the minority in Congress they still will be a major impediment to Democrats being able to impact the economy, but as the minority they can blame the Democrats.\u00a0 If they are in the majority, then Obama has more of an opportunity to cast Republicans as the problem.<\/p>\n

All in all, the GOP’s best strategy for 2010 would be to come just shy of taking the Senate.\u00a0 This allows them to keep the Democrats on the hook, and yet prevent any unfavorable legislation from passing Congress.\u00a0 Meanwhile, a slight majority in the House would give them the opportunity to start copious investigations of the Obama administration, similar to what they did with Clinton, in hopes of casting the Democratic White House as corrupt.\u00a0 If they get lucky and the economy really is in a prolonged stagnation, they will then be positioned to sweep Congress and the Presidency in 2012.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If Republicans sweep control of both houses of Congress it might actually be a worst case scenario for them. After<\/p>\n

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